Nispel notes Indexed Spending on Apple was down 8% month-over-month in May, according to the latest credit card/debit data from KeyBanc customers, which compares to the three-year average of +6%.
“-8% represents the weakest m/m May data point even going back pre-pandemic, likely suggesting softening U.S. demand,” Nispel commented.
The data poses risks to their estimates, although they are currently maintaining estimates which are 3.8% above the consensus.
“Our data is beginning to show some softening U.S. trends, which we believe poses risks to our estimates,” the analyst commented. “We believe we could be too high for Mac due to an air-pocket in demand in anticipation of the new MacBook Air launch, as well as some modest downside from supply constraints and soft demand from China.”
Overall, the analyst maintained estimates, the Overweight rating, and $191 price target. “We maintain our above consensus Hardware estimates (F3Q22: KBCM $64.9B vs. consensus $62.5B) and slightly above consensus F3Q22 Service revenue estimates as we prefer to wait to have a full-quarter picture prior to making estimate revisions,” he concludes.